Evoluția prețurilor la imobilele locative și perspectivele creditelor imobiliare ipotecare în condiții inflaționiste

Abstract

The residential real estate market has grown rapidly in recent years in the Republic of Moldova, being conditioned, in particular, by solvent demand. The development of the mortgage lending instrument is one of the main drivers of market dynamism. Mortgages are the only way to finance the purchase of a home for most of the population. The initial assumption from the outbreak of the pandemic was that residential real estate markets would be severely affected by declining household incomes due to the economic downturn. Time, on the contrary, has shown that real growth in house prices, both globally and in the country, has accelerated during the pandemic, although it has seen fluctuations. Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies introduced to support economic agents and the population, as well as to relaunch business, have resulted in inflationary pressures and rising house prices in most economies, including the Republic of Moldova. Thus, the combination of lower interest rates, the emergence of a new kind of demand for "home offices" related to the pandemic, supply constraints, and moratoriums recommended by the authorities for loan service have supported the demand for housing and pushed prices upwards. Today's phenomenon, when mortgage rates are significantly lower compared to high inflation, is extremely rare and short-lived, and the pressure on adjusting rates is increasingly felt. A collapse in the real estate market along with over-indebtedness of individuals and increase in non-performing loans seem inevitable and raise concerns about a new real estate bubble. Under these conditions, in order to cool the real estate markets, the central banks have already started to apply the so-called macro-prudential instruments, which have the advantage of targeting the real estate market directly. Significant fluctuations in the real estate market are inevitable, but it is premature to predict a crisis.